Advarsler, Alauihao

Tropical Cyclone Warning : Severe Tropical Storm Nika (TORAJI) “NIKA” FURTHER WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA. Location of eye/center : The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data at 185 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (18.3, 118.8). Strength : Maximum winds of 95 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 115 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move Northeastward at 30 kph Forecast position : Nov 12, 2024 02:00 PM - 865 km East of Southeastern Luzon Nov 13, 2024 02:00 AM - 680 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte Nov 13, 2024 02:00 PM - 680 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte Nov 14, 2024 02:00 AM - 235 km East of Casiguran, Aurora Nov 14, 2024 02:00 PM - 125 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan Nov 15, 2024 02:00 AM - Over the coastal waters of Calayan, Cagayan Nov 16, 2024 02:00 AM - 100 km West of Itbayat, Batanes Nov 17, 2024 02:00 AM - 275 km North of Itbayat, Batanes HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook   Refer to Weather Advisory No. 18 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone “NIKA” and “OFEL”.   Severe Winds   The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1. Furthermore, the northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Today (12 November): Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Isabela   Coastal Inundation   There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge that may occur in the next 48 hours in the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 10 issued at 2:00 AM today. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 6 issued at 5:00 AM today.   24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook   Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Norte and northern Ilocos Sur Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside. Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands Up to 3.0 m:The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region, the seaboard of northern Isabela Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of northern Aurora and northern Zambales Up to 2.0 m: the remaining western and eastern seaboards of Luzon; the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK On the forecast track, NIKA will continue moving generally northwestward to westward over West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility within the next 12 hours.   NIKA will continue to weaken for the next days and may become a remnant low over the sea near southern China. Nevertheless, it will remain as a severe tropical storm throughout its passage within the PAR region.

Tropical Cyclone Alert : Tropical Storm Ofel (USAGI) TROPICAL STORM “USAGI” HAS ENTERED THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AND WAS GIVEN THE LOCAL NAME “OFEL”. Location of eye/center : The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data at 1,170 km East of Southeastern Luzon (13.0, 134.8). Strength : Maximum winds of 75 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 90 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move West Northwestward at 25 kph Forecast position : Nov 12, 2024 02:00 PM - 865 km East of Southeastern Luzon Nov 13, 2024 02:00 AM - 680 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte Nov 13, 2024 02:00 PM - 680 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte Nov 14, 2024 02:00 AM - 235 km East of Casiguran, Aurora Nov 14, 2024 02:00 PM - 125 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan Nov 15, 2024 02:00 AM - Over the coastal waters of Calayan, Cagayan Nov 16, 2024 02:00 AM - 100 km West of Itbayat, Batanes Nov 17, 2024 02:00 AM - 275 km North of Itbayat, Batanes HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook   Tropical Storm OFEL is currently not directly affecting any part of the country. However, a Weather Advisory No. 18 has been issued in anticipation of the heavy rainfall caused by OFEL, apart from those caused by NIKA.   Severe Winds   Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 may be raised over portions of Cagayan Valley this late evening or tomorrow early morning. The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of OFEL is Wind Signal No. 4. Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Tropical Storm OFEL will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Tomorrow (13 November): Catanduanes Thursday (14 November): Batanes, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, and the northern portions of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes Friday (15 November): Isabela and the northern portion of Aurora HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook   Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Norte and northern Ilocos Sur Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside. Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region, the seaboard of northern Isabela Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of northern Aurora and northern Zambales Up to 2.0 m: the remaining western and eastern seaboards of Luzon; the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK OFEL is forecast to move west northwestward until Thursday (November 14) evening before turning northwestward to northward for the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, it may make landfall over Northern or Central Luzon on Thursday afternoon or evening. This tropical cyclone is forecast to steadily intensify in the next three days and reach typhoon category on Wednesday. It may also hit land at or near its peak intensity. Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone. It must also be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on the 4th and 5th day of the forecast track. Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards, areas in Northern Luzon are at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly, storm surge inundation from OFEL which may cause considerable impacts. Moreover, the eastern portions of Central and Southern Luzon may also be affected, especially if the tropical cyclone further expands in size or follows a more southerly path (but within the forecast confidence cone).